While a decline in oil supply will take place, it will not occur until 2025.When it does happen, it will occur sufficiently slowly and incrementally that other fuels can replace its loss, apparently without disruption.In comparison, current indications look much better.
It is possible to do some detective work regarding how the current model is constructed.
Dolores “Doly” Garcia, who worked on the model, wrote three posts published on The Oil explaining the model.
Log ind Køb abonnement Beregn din idealvægt udfra ny forskning, der giver plads til et par ekstra kilo.
Morten Zacho har lavet en beregner på sit sundhedssite competitive-isp.info, hvor han han taget i ørerne og lejlighedsvis en asiatisk udseende rengøringsmand.
That is fine–unless the belief is based on a misunderstanding of real relationships.
On page 56, in a section called “The Deterministic Backbone,” Randers explains that some variables including population, industrial infrastructure, energy consumption, and GDP growth change very slowly, over periods of decades.
With this view, methods are chosen so that none of these can change very quickly.
Oil Drum Posts by Dolores “Doly” Garcia Dolores “Doly” Garcia published three posts on The Oil Drum related to versions of the model she was working on that ultimately was used in .
Changes in the model, which I will describe further in another section, are the first reason I don’t believe Randers’ forecast.
A second reason why I don’t believe Randers’ forecast has to do with limitations of the original forecast.
That is because the drivers will be the same and the organization of global society is unlikely to change discontinuously.